시애틀 출신으로 월가에서 증시 분석가로 활동하는 한유진씨가 한국 경제 현황에 대한 분석 보고서를 작성했다. 메릴린치증권의 아시안 에퀴티 마켓 분석가로 활동하고 있는 그는 한원섭 전 시애틀한인회장의 아들로 쇼어우드고교(쇼어라인)를 나와 미시건대학 경제학과를 졸업한 후 지금까지 메릴린치증권에서 일하고 있다. 한유진씨의 한국 경제 현황 보고서를 한글 요약과 함께 원문을 소개한다. <편집자주>
▲한국 경제의 현황 (Current State of the South Korean Economy)
문재인 대통령 정부에 대해 상당한 반발과 보복이 있었다. 이러한 부정적인 견해에 전혀 이유가 없는 것은 아니지만 한국 경제의 침체가 문 대통령의 정책과 결정 보다는 세계 경제의 변수와 한국 경제의 구조적인 문제 그리고 광범위한 사회문화적 변화에 크게 기인한다.
세계 경제는 경제사이클의 마지막 단계에 있으며 한국도 예외가 아니다. 중국 경제의 침체, 특히 최근 벌어지고 있는 미중 무역분쟁은 다른 나라들에 비해 중국에 대한 수출의존도가 높은 한국 경제에 상대적으로 큰 타격을 주고 있다.
청년 실업이 증가하는 문제를 문 대통령의 탓으로 돌리는 것은 무리가 있다고 본다. 아시아 금융위기 이후 한국의 청년 실업률이 증가되는 추세를 보이고 있기 때문이다.
한국의 종합주가지수(KOSPI)가 올들어 10~20% 하락했지만 미국의 다우지수, 중국의 샹하이 종합지수, 일본 니케이지수 등 세계 주요 증시의 지수들도 같은 모습을 보이고 있다.
결론적으로 특히 침체기에 들어선 국가의 경제 상황은 방어적인 관점에서 보는 것이 중요하다. 종종 경제가 침체되면 이에 분노하는 시민들은 현 정부의 국정운영을 탓하는 경항이 있지만, 사실 이보다는 경제 수치와 통계를 바탕으로 한 경제 상황에 대한 근본적인 이해가 필요하다.
경제 상황을 제대로 이해하는데 필요한 단순한 분석을 바탕으로, 한국 정부의 경제정책에 대한 우려는 지나치다는 결론이다. 최근에 느끼고 있는 한국 경제의 침체 분위기는 문재인 대통령의 정책이나 결정에 문제가 있다기 보다는 전반적인 세계 경제 분위기, 경제 구조 그리고 광범위한 사회문화적 변화에 따른 것으로 분석된다.
[영어 원문]
Current State of the South Korean Economy
There’s been considerable amount of outrage and retaliation against President Moon’s administration. While the negative sentiment may not be entirely without reason, several factors may suggest that global macroeconomic variables, South Korea’s economic structure and broader social/cultural changes may have played a more significant role in the recent perceived economic slowdown in South Korea than the direct effects from President Moon’s policies and decisions.
A closer look at the current state of the global economic/business cycle as well as a quick dive into some of the most important indicators of economic health including performance of Korean equities (ie. Stocks) suggest the following:
•The world is in the late stages of the business/economic cycle and South Korea is not be immune to a downturn.
•The slowdown in China’s economy, particularly the effects from the recent trade disputes, have hit the South Korean economy relatively harder than most countries given China’s importance to South Korea’s overall exports.
•Moon’s impact to the overall rise in the youth unemployment situation in Korea has been overstated as the trend in the youth unemployment rate has been ticking upwards since the Asian financial crisis.
The World is in the Late Stages of the Business/Economic Cycle
It's a widely held view that most of the world is currently at the tail end of its business cycle if not already spiraling downwards as evidenced by the recent performance of most major stock market indices globally. As stated by one of the most famous hedge fund managers in the world, Ray Dalio, we are in the 7thor 8th inning of the cycle if not later. It is widely known that economies operate in a ‘boom’ or ‘bust’ cycle meaning all periods of economic growth and/or recovery come to an end.
A typical business cycle (from the beginning of an economic expansion to the peak and back down) typically lasts 5-8 years. During a ‘boom’ period, corporate earnings recover, unemployment steadily declines, prices of assets (stocks, real estate) increase, and overall the nation as a whole is better off economically.
The opposite is true during a 'bust' cycle --- corporate earnings decline, unemployment rises and asset prices decline. What most people fail to recognize is the inevitability of these business/economic cycles. Regardless of the political administration in charge at the time and their respective policies, 'bust' cycles will occur and its impact is felt globally. During ‘boom’ periods, credit for a given nation’s economic prosperity is often misattributed to the savvy decisions by the political administrations in charge while the opposite is true during ‘bust’ cycle.
The last global economic ‘boom’ we saw coincided with the recovery from the 08/09 global financial crisis. Since 2009, markets and economies all over the globe began to recover from the Great Recession largely due to simulative measures and loose monetary policies implemented in most parts of the world including South Korea. The recovery ultimately transformed into one of the longest lasting economic recoveries and ‘boom’ periods in recent memory.
To reiterate, with every ‘boom’ cycle, there is a ‘bust’ cycle where economies globally experience a downturn. Over the past year or two, there have been signs of weakness in many emerging and developed countries including South Korea. Some countries, particularly the United States, were largely immune to this slowdown for a period of time due to the continuation of questionable accommodative and simulative economic policies.
For instance, most economic and financial analysts expected to see weakness towards the end of Obama’s presidency and certainly during the new administration. The election of Trump in late 2016 along with his pro-business measures provided a temporary boost of optimism for US economy which resulted in the perception of continued prosperity in the US while other nations such as South Korea saw themselves as underperforming economically inevitably leading to frustration by a large percentage of citizens.
It is important to take a deeper look into a state of a nation’s economy, particularly during slowdowns and ‘bust’ cycles. Often, during downtimes, disgruntled citizens have the tendency to point the finger directly at the current political leadership however it is important to look into the facts, data and statistics in order to truly understand the ongoings of an economy.
The simple analysis done in an attempt to better understand the state of the current economy may suggest that recent concerns with the South Korean leadership may have been overstated. As we have uncovered, global macroeconomic factors, the economic structure and broader social/cultural changes may have played a more significant role in the recent perceived economic slowdown than the direct effects from President Moon’s policies and decisions.
<저작권자 ⓒ 조이시애틀뉴스, 무단전재 및 재배포금지>
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